Venue: Asia Society Hong Kong Center, 9 Justice Drive, Admiralty
Asia Society members : HK$ 200
Non-members : HK$ 350
Registration at : 18:30
Event starts at : 18:30
The Chinese economy appears destined for failure, the financial bubble forever in peril of popping, the real estate sector doomed to collapse, and the factories fated for bankruptcy. Banks drowning in bad loans. An urban landscape littered with ghost towns of empty property. Industrial zones stalked by zombie firms. Trade tariffs blocking the path to global markets. And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, and international influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving. Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Economist Thomas Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade in Beijing, turns the spotlight on China\'s fragile fundamentals and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with Communist cadres, shadow bankers and migrant workers, he pieces together a unique perspective on China\'s past, present and possible futures. From Deng Xiaoping\'s reform and opening to Donald Trump\'s trade war, he traces policy steps and missteps that have taken China to the brink of a \"Lehman moment\" credit crisis. Delving into the balance sheets for banks, corporates and local governments, he plumbs the depths of financial risks. From Japan in 1989 and Korea in 1997 to the U.S. in 2007, he positions China in the context of a rolling series of global crises. Mapping possible scenarios, he games out what will happen, if the bubble that never pops finally does. In this evening program, Mr. Orlik, who will join virtually, will engage in conversation on his newly published book with Madeleine Lim, Senior Executive Editor at Bloomberg.